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Recap for 1st half of 2018 and to 8-19-18 house sales for Grand Forks, ND in comparison to 2016 and 2017 by Jerry Waletzko, Crary Real Estate, Grand Forks, ND (8-20-18)
Anecdotal evidence of heightened sales activity in the Grand Forks market was indicated in my inaugural report for the end of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018. Indeed, statistics on Grand Forks house sales only, now confirms that in the first half of 2018 there have been a record number of 341 houses sold (again only Grand Forks - not the entire MLS coverage area) thru our Grand Forks Board of REALTORS to our web site service called FlexMLS. This 341 beats the 316 house sales in the first half of 2017. It also beats the 310 houses sold in the first half of 2016, which turned out to be a record breaking year of house sales in Grand Forks at 680.
This is a pleasant rebound to the relative drop in sales of 22.95% for the fourth quarter of 2017 in comparison to the same quarter in 2016 as noted in my inaugural blog report.
In that first report I stated the total for all of 2016 was a record of 680 house sales and there were 645 house sales in 2017, which was our second highest yearly tally of house sales (2015 was a distant third at 563 or maybe 564 hose sales). By these measures, the 341 at the end of the first half of 2018 could mean that if we sold another 341 in the second half of 2018, we could break the record set in 2016 by two house sales!
It seems probable that we could at least come close to a record year if we consider this snapshot of the current market:
So far up thru 8/17/2018, we have sold 445 houses in Grand Forks for the year.
In the same time up to 8/17/2017, we had sold 410 houses.
In the record year of 2016, we had sold 424 up to 8/17/2016.
So far in year-to-date comparisons to two record years we are still on a pace in the house sales race to potentially set another record in 2018!
Plus, a boost to the yearly tally will come from the 55 lots in Grand Forks marked “Sold” that Thomsen Homes LLC shows on their website, www.thomsenhomesllc.com as of 8-19-18. So far they have constructed eleven new houses that have officially “closed” with buyers, as per the Grand Forks county web site, and are so noted within my statistics presented. That leaves 44 lots marked “sold”. I suspect about 30 of those might possibly get built on and “Closed” in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
(Thomsen Homes LLC is the “affordable luxury” home builder out of Fargo, ND that started building houses in Grand Forks and East Grand Forks in about the second half of last year. It looks like they are doing very well. They sell their product thru us Realtors via the MLS and I could help you with that ... but I digress.)
Now look at what the past can possibly tell us about the future:
In 2015, we sold 222 houses from 8-18-15 to the end of 2015.
In 2016, we sold 258 houses from 8-18-16 to the end of 2016.
In 2017, we sold 235 houses from 8-18-17 to the end of 2017.
If we can match the high tally from 2016 of 258 houses sold, for the rest of 2018 that would be a possible total of 703 (445 +258) house sales and would be a new record year.
Even if we can match the lower tally from 2015 of 222 houses sold, for the rest of 2018 that would still be 667 (445 + 222) possible houses sold in 2018 – very near the 680 record set in 2016.
All this certainly seems doable to me especially with these two considerations in mind: As of 8-19-2018 we had 77 “Pending” houses in the MLS and it is very likely they will all close by the end of 2018. If that tally is added to the 30 or so Thomsen Homes that might officially “close” that would be about 107 likely closing coming up. That would be 43% of the remaining sales we would need to break the 2016 record (680 record +1=681, then 681 – 445 sold already = 246, then 107/246 = 43%). With over four months to go that would be only 139 more house sales!
That is all good sounding news for sellers who have had or will have closings from “Pending” house sales. However, I think there are some grey clouds that may not bode well for sellers who still have houses to sell in 2018. I will outline five reasons why in my next post.
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-To the best of my abilities my analysis has scrubbed away the out-of-town sales (in the country side around Grand Forks) that have been reported as Grand Forks sales. They have contaminated any credible research about the city of Grand Forks market itself since MLS sales statistics started to be recorded on our FlexMLS website in the year 2000.
- To the best of my abilities my sale numbers for “houses” includes all the single family homes, townhomes, and twin homes in Grand Forks - whether new homes or existing - that have been reported to the MLS plus, 6 REALTOR/builder sales of MLS listings in 2016 that missed getting reported as “sold” to the MLS, another 10 MLS in 2017, and 3 so far in 2018. I also confirmed the custom homes sold by REALTORS for Thomsen Homes not yet reported in the MLS at the Grand Forks county website.
-This research does not include any MLS listings of “existing” houses that were cancelled, expired, or withdrawn but that eventually were sold by a Realtor and then went unreported to our MLS.
- I have double checked all my numbers but please do not rely solely on my research or my opinions for your real estate decisions.
- Ultimately of course, each house has its own unique relationship to the market. I would be happy to help you, my reader, determine what the particular “Potential Market Value Range” of a house might be in light of current market conditions around it.